The total telecom and pay-TV service market revenue in Indonesia is set to witness a marginal compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 0.1% between 2018 and 2023, as the growth in mobile data and fixed broadband segments will partially offset the declining revenues from voice and pay-TV segments and help prevent the overall revenue growth from turning negative, according to GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company.

GlobalData’s report ‘Indonesia Country Intelligence Report’ reveals that mobile voice revenue will drop by 3.6% CAGR over the forecast period due to declining voice tariff as a result of operators’ voiced bundled plans. Monthly mobile voice usage is also expected to gradually drop from 65 minutes in 2018 to 45 minutes in 2023 due to rising substitution of traditional mobile voice service with over-the-top (OTT) communication services supported by growing availability of 4G services. 

Similarly, Indonesia’s pay-TV market is forecast to decline at a CAGR of 2.9% during 2018-2023 due to a substantial decline in pay-TV average revenue per user (ARPU) due to price competition from OTT players.

Mobile data segment will remain the largest contributor towards the overall total telecom and pay-TV revenues over 2018-2023. Monthly mobile data usage will grow from 1.5GB in 2018 to 6.8GB by 2023, in line with the rising consumption of online video and social media content over smartphones.

Mobile data’s share of total revenues is expected to increase from 49.1% in 2018 to 54.0% by the year-end 2023, rising adoption of high-speed mobile data services supported by operators’ investments on the expansion of 3G/4G networks.

Deepa Dhingra, Telecom Analyst at GlobalData, says: “Despite 3G being the leading mobile technology in Indonesia during the forecast period, 4G will be the fastest growing technology, recording a CAGR of 23.5% over the period as operators continue to expand their 4G networks. For instance, Indosat Ooredoo is aiming to extend 4G coverage to 87% of the population by 2019. 4G will account for 44.2% share of the total mobile subscriptions in 2023, compared to 47.9% of 3G subscriptions.”

The fixed broadband revenue will expand at a CAGR of 3.7% during 2018-2023, driven by the government’s target to improve fixed broadband penetration and investment by operators in fiber-to-the-home (FTTH) network.