The adult epilepsy market is expected to grow from $5.82bn in 2020 to $8.35bn by 2030 across the seven major markets (7MM*) at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.7%, according to GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company.

The company’s latest report, ‘Epilepsy: Global Drug Forecast and Market Analysis to 2030 – Forecast Update’, reveals that the launches of several recently approved products, including SK Biopharmaceuticals’ Xcopri, UCB’s Nayzilam, Neurelis’ Valtoco, Zogenix’s Fintepla, and GW Pharmaceuticals’ Epidiolex, will drive market growth.

Philippa Salter, Neurology Analyst at GlobalData, comments: “Having demonstrated strong efficacy in clinical trials, the recent launch of Xcopri will be a strong driver of growth in the adult epilepsy market, particularly during the first half of the forecast period. GlobalData forecasts peak sales for Xcopri of $1.47bn in 2027.”

GlobalData has identified that continued generic erosion will be a significant barrier to growth in the adult epilepsy market. In particular, the patent expiries of several key products, including the blockbuster drugs Xcopri in 2027 and Vimpat in 2022, will have a significant negative impact on sales.

Salter continues: “GlobalData expects the adult epilepsy market to peak in 2027 at $9.24bn, with the generic erosion of several key products resulting in a decline in sales towards the end of the forecast period.”

Although there are five late-stage pipeline products, Azurity Pharmaceuticals’ topiramate (ET-101) and zonisamide (ET-104), Eisai’s lorcaserin, Marinus Pharmaceuticals’ ganaxolone, and Takeda Pharmaceutical/Ovid Therapeutics’ soticlestat, expected to launch during the forecast period, ganaxolone is the only one expected to have a significant impact in the adult market with the other products predominantly targeted at the paediatric epilepsy population. Therefore, they are not expected to generate enough sales to overcome the decline in sales due to the generic erosion of key products in the market.

Salter adds: “Ganaxolone has shown extremely promising results for treating status epilepticus in clinical trials and key opinion leaders (KOLs) interviewed by GlobalData believe it has the potential to significantly alter how status epilepticus is treated in the future.”

Despite the large number of antiepileptic drugs (AEDs) available on the market, and the promising recently approved drugs such as Xcopri, significant unmet needs remain for drugs that provide efficacy for treatment resistant patients, and for drugs with improved safety profiles. Furthermore, many of the drugs currently used allow for symptomatic relief or prevention of seizures, and KOLs have highlighted that curative or disease-modifying therapies would also be highly sought in the epilepsy market.

* 7MM = US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, and Japan