The COVID-19 pandemic continues to dominate global economic outlook, however, the rollout of vaccines, surge in demand for goods and services, effectiveness of government spending and green shoots of recovery in key macroeconomic indicators resulted in GlobalData revising its 2021 global growth forecast upward from 4.9% on February 15 to 6% on April 19.

According to GlobalData’s proprietary COVID-19 Economic Recovery Scorecard, six out of the top ten nations are from Asia as of March 2021. Singapore was top of the recovery scorecard rank, followed by China, South Korea, Malaysia, and Japan. On the other hand, Middle East countries such as United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Saudi Arabia performed poorly, and it may take time for these countries to recover due to lower revenue amid oil price fluctuations. European countries such as Italy, the Netherlands, and France remained susceptible to a resurgence in COVID-19 cases.

Gargi Rao, Economic Analyst at GlobalData, comments: “Accelerated growth in Singapore’s manufacturing sector in February 2021, along with an increase in demand for semiconductors and related equipment and government stimulus package worth 24.17% of its GDP remain the major drivers of growth for the country. While huge FDI flows into the Chinese economy during the pandemic placed China on a quick growth path.”

The UK’s economic recovery could be delayed in H1 2021 due to ongoing COVID-19 restrictions and resurgence of a new variant of the virus. The pandemic resulted in an almost 10.9% slump in total economic output of the country in 2020. However, with an effective vaccination drive and stimulus packages, GlobalData projects a 5.3% real GDP growth for 2021.

The US economy suffered massive supply disruptions in the manufacturing sector amid a surge in global demand for new orders. With optimistic business expectations in March 2021, the US manufacturing sector is expected to aid economic recovery for H2 2021. However, the US-China trade war, widening income gaps and procurement of vaccination doses pose downside risks to the economy’s recovery.

In emerging economies, vaccine deployment remains uneven, which could be due to a shortage of vaccines or implementation challenges. The largest economies face different challenges, and this could drag down the growth rates for countries such as Russia, which faces sanctions from the EU. Meanwhile, Turkey faces monetary policy issues related to balance of payments.

Rao adds: “The pace of economic recovery for most countries remain clouded by geopolitical tensions, volatility in oil prices and supply chain disruptions due to a sudden spike in export orders. However, with a massive vaccination drive across countries along with monetary policy measures by various governments, strong economic recovery is expected for H2 2021 globally.”